fallacy

False cause

Also called: Non causa pro causa, Questionable cause

A false cause fallacy identifies something as the cause of an outcome without adequate evidence that it is.

How it works

It is the umbrella for causal mistakes: confusing sequence with cause, correlation with cause, or picking one cause among many. Simple causal stories are attractive because they suggest simple fixes.

Examples

"Exam results dropped because students now use phones."

Many factors changed at the same time; the phone explanation is assumed, not tested.

"The market fell because of the new regulation announced that morning."

Markets move for many reasons; timing alone does not establish the cause.

How to spot it

A single cause offered for a complex outcome.
No evidence linking the cause to the effect.
Alternative explanations are not discussed.

How to respond

Ask what else could explain the outcome.
Ask for evidence that rules out the alternatives.
Look for the mechanism linking cause and effect.